Avoiding the Scramble
Nothing is more anxiety provoking or heart breaking than learning you haven’t matched into your preferred specialty choice. What is the Scramble? If you end up not matching into a program and find yourself in the scramble, here's some helpful advice for scramble day:
It has been our experience, the students who end up in the Scramble:
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Had an overly optimistic assessment of their competitiveness.
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Were unwilling to consider any other specialty but “X” and had no Plan B.
- Did not apply to enough programs.
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Did not rank enough programs.
- Tried to match in a specialty that they were not competitive in.
- Did not apply to residencies where they had a realistic chance to match.
Assess your relative competitiveness:
The Association of American Medical Colleges AAMC posts an evidence-based report that will help you assess your relative competitiveness for a given specialty:
“Charting Outcomes in the
Match.”
Did you know:
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“The probability of U.S. Seniors, matching to their preferred specialty was .75 in the highly competitive specialties and .94 for the other specialties, translating to odds of matching up 3.0 to 1 and 15.7 to 1, respectively;
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For U.S. seniors who preferred the highly competitive specialties USMLE Step 2 scores were significant, but USMLE Step 1 scores were a better predictor of match success;
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Neither the number of research experiences nor the number of publications was a significant predictor of match success for U.S. seniors who preferred either a highly competitive or other specialty;
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Having another type of graduate degree was not a significant predictor of match success for any U.S. Seniors.”
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According to recent data, MD graduates who reenter the Match a year or more after graduation have less than a 50% chance of obtaining a position.
The Importance of a Plan B
If you are applying in a highly competitive specialty (for example, dermatology, diagnostic radiology, plastic surgery, ophthalmology, otolaryngology), it’s important to develop a Plan B. This may be somewhat less necessary if your Step I score is at or above the average for your specialty AND you are at the top of your class in your clerkship grades. However, even in these situations, some of our students have matched into their 12th choice. In general, it's a good idea to have a second alternative specialty to avoid ending up in the scramble.
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